AGP Executive Report

Earthquake Watch: A 6.1-magnitude quake struck northeastern Afghanistan, with strong tremors felt across Kabul, Balkh and Badakhshan and into Pakistan and India; no immediate damage or casualties were reported. Urban Finance: In Karachi, Jamaat-i-Islami’s KMC opposition bloc unveiled a Rs300bn “shadow budget” for 2026-27, arguing the city’s real needs far exceed the proposed Rs60bn and calling for more local control of taxes and transfers. Trade & Investment Links: Afghanistan’s commerce delegation met Afghan businesspeople in China and participated in trade events, while Balkh’s chamber pushed ties with Türkiye to expand exports, investment and transit cooperation. Business Environment Pressure: The Taliban’s smartphone ban in state institutions is disrupting workflows, slowing coordination and hurting morale, with enforcement expanding to more ministries and grade levels. Energy & Industry (Regional): Bangladesh signaled a “crash programme” to stabilize gas supply for industry, including an FSRU, aiming to unlock stalled investment. Security & Cross-Border Risk: Russia reiterated concerns about terrorist activity linked to groups operating from Afghanistan, keeping regional counter-terror pressure on Kabul in focus.

Disaster & Supply Chains: A 6.2-magnitude earthquake struck Afghanistan’s Hindu Kush region, with tremors felt across Kabul, Pakistan and India’s Delhi-NCR and Jammu & Kashmir; no casualties were reported. Trade & Food Security: The WFP says Afghanistan’s trade has shifted heavily to Iran—about 60% now—after Pakistan border disruptions, pushing up transport costs and worsening food insecurity for 13.8 million people. Energy & Industry: Officials report TAPI gas pipeline progress in Herat, with over 90 km laid and 125 km prepared, aiming to supply Herat’s industrial park within six months, alongside power and railway plans. Markets: Kabul markets saw gold prices fall week-on-week, while key staples like sugar, flour, rice and cooking oil largely held steady; fuel prices also stayed unchanged. SME & Jobs: UNDP reaffirmed support for small and medium-sized enterprises, linking business growth to employment and household income amid rising unemployment and limits on women’s work. Mining & Output: Emirati-backed Shabashak coal mines in Afghanistan are producing about 200–300 tonnes daily, with officials citing high-quality coal for domestic demand.

Afghanistan–India Trade Talks: The Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment says ACCI chair Sayed Karim Hashemi met India’s trade and agriculture officials to expand investment, food processing, technology transfer, and Afghan participation in India’s IITF, with an online trader-investor meeting planned. Opium Decline, Drug Shift: UNODC reports Afghanistan’s poppy cultivation fell 95% since the ban, with opium production dropping to decades-low levels, while drug use is shifting toward synthetic drugs like methamphetamine and misused medicines. Drug Treatment Funding: UNDP reaffirmed support for Afghanistan drug treatment and harm-reduction services, including opioid substitution therapy via Global Fund programs, citing ongoing health and human-rights needs. Security at the Border: CSTO says militants in Afghanistan’s northern border region remain a key threat to member states, with plans to intensify joint efforts against extremist groups. Markets & Infrastructure: Afghanistan’s economy and trade are also in focus as Herat orchard owners push for cold storage and export support, and reports highlight development momentum such as electricity transmission progress and Salang Highway reconstruction contracts.

Rehabilitation & Skills: A Kabul vocational workshop is giving recovering drug users a real second chance, pairing classroom training with trades like tailoring, shoemaking and electrical repair. Child Nutrition Crisis: Médecins Sans Frontières reports a sharp jump in severe acute malnutrition in southern Afghanistan, blaming worsening food insecurity and health-system disruptions. Opium-to-Farm Shift: In Logar, farmers are moving from poppy to wheat and potatoes after Afghanistan’s 2022 ban, seeking steadier income and less risk. Food & Business Safety: A Birmingham restaurant serving Afghan cuisine was shut after inspectors found a mouse infestation and major hygiene breaches. Trade & Logistics: Kazakhstan is sending specialist medical support to Afghanistan and also pushing regional connectivity, including plans for a cargo transshipment terminal linking Central Asia to Iran’s Gulf routes. Drug Market Watch: The UN warns global drug use is rising and synthetic drugs are surging, with Afghanistan’s opium ban reshaping opioid markets worldwide. Justice & Rights: The ICC judges sued the U.S. over sanctions they call unlawful, while reports also highlight tightening restrictions and rights rollbacks affecting women.

Afghanistan–Pakistan Trade & Diplomacy: The Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI) praised Pakistan’s leadership for peace efforts and welcomed a decision to facilitate the movement of empty containers from Afghanistan, calling it a confidence-building step toward restarting regular cargo and transit. Afghan Business Exposure in China: Afghan traders took part in the China–Eurasia Expo 2026 in Urumqi with booths for carpets, saffron, dried fruits and gemstones, urging lower participation costs and broader government support to expand exports. Telecom Costs: Afghanistan’s telecom regulator and the Ministry of Communications ordered internet package prices to return to previous rates by next week after public complaints about higher prices and slow speeds. Security & Cross-Border Crime: Amritsar police arrested seven people, including an Afghan national, seizing heroin, multiple firearms and hawala-linked cash, with investigators citing social-media-linked foreign handlers. Regional Security Claims: The Islamic Emirate rejected claims that Afghan territory poses security threats to other countries, saying no group can use Afghan soil for armed activity.

Afghanistan–India Trade Talks: Afghanistan’s business community is pushing to expand trade with India as the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment met India’s special representative, citing high transport costs, shipping delays, Chabahar bottlenecks, and financial frictions—while India pledged cooperation to ease business visas for Afghan traders. EU–Taliban Migration Backlash: The EU is facing mounting criticism after hosting a secretive Brussels technical meeting with Taliban officials focused on deportation and diplomatic services, with MEPs saying it clashes with EU values. Humanitarian Funding Pressure: Switzerland pledged $1.95 million to the UN humanitarian fund for Afghanistan, as OCHA warns the 2026 aid response is severely underfunded—only 16% covered so far. Women’s Economic Life Under Taliban: Reporting highlights how Afghan women struggle to run businesses under Taliban rules, pointing to practical barriers that hit livelihoods and local markets. Mining & Industry Progress: New industrial steps are in the spotlight, including a chromite processing factory opening in Logar and iron production progress in Samangan, signaling continued investment interest in Afghanistan’s extractives. Regional Security & Trade Risks: EU and UK envoys backed Pakistan’s right to self-defense against TTP threats linked to Afghanistan-based safe havens, underscoring how security concerns can spill into cross-border commerce.

Afghan Industry Boost: Samangan’s $50m iron production plant is nearing completion, with phased construction and plans to start operations within 2–3 months; officials say it could reach 1,500 tons daily and create up to 1,000 jobs. Mining & Processing: Logar inaugurated a private $1m chromite processing plant in Mohammad Agha, targeting about 500 tons of ore per day and around 50 jobs, while the Mines ministry urged more processing to raise value and employment. Trade & Investment Links: Kabul and New Delhi signed an MoU to expand trade and investment, aiming to nearly double bilateral trade toward $2bn, with talks covering sector opportunities and potential factory projects. Regional Diplomacy With Economic Stakes: Pakistan said US-Iran technical talks are set to resume next week after a temporary pause, with sanctions relief and economic cooperation tied to progress—an outcome that could indirectly affect regional commerce. EU Deportation Talks: The Taliban held closed-door meetings with EU officials in Brussels on “dignified return” and trust-building, as EU states push faster deportations—an issue with major labor and migration implications for Afghanistan.

Mining Value-Add: A new chromite stone processing factory opened in Logar (eastern Afghanistan), backed by a $1m investment and designed to process up to 500 tons of ore per day—aimed at boosting domestic mineral processing and jobs. Returnee Housing: Afghanistan’s housing ministry says 1,351 returnee families received land plots across Nangarhar, Farah, Helmand, Balkh and Faryab, with the nationwide total now at 51,425 families. Healthcare Industry Push: The Ministry of Public Health reports domestic medicine production has climbed to over 40% of the market, as it pushes GMP certification and factory capacity expansion to cut import dependence. Trade & Investment Linkages: India’s PHD Chamber and Afghanistan’s ACCI signed MoU talks to expand bilateral trade and investment, with an Indian trader delegation set to visit Afghanistan soon. EU Support for Returnees: The EU allocated €20m via IOM to help Afghans returning from Iran and Pakistan, focusing on livelihoods, small businesses, and access to services. Independent Media Pressure: CPJ urged the Taliban to reopen Tamadon TV after a Kabul raid shut the station and sealed offices, raising fresh concerns for business and information freedom.

EU–Afghanistan Diplomacy: The EU held closed-door talks in Brussels with Taliban officials on a “dignified return process” for Afghans facing deportations, with rights groups urging the bloc to cancel the engagement. Transport & Trade Infrastructure: Afghanistan’s Herat–Mazar-e-Sharif rail project has moved toward implementation after an agreement signed with Iran, aiming to cut reliance on existing export routes and link to Central Asia. Road Connectivity: The Ministry of Public Works signed a contract worth 1.252bn afghanis to reconstruct a 15-kilometer Salang Highway section, including drainage and culvert upgrades. Education & Jobs for Returnees: Nangarhar plans to recruit 676 returning teachers to support 19,637 students who have returned from Pakistan, as migrants push for work aligned with their skills. Humanitarian Support: The EU allocated €20m via IOM to help returnees and displaced Afghans with reintegration, livelihoods, and access to services. Cost of Living Pressure: Kabul residents complain about rising internet prices and reduced data for the same money, calling for stronger regulation. Security Concerns: Pakistan demanded “immediate, credible, and verifiable” action by the Taliban against terrorist groups operating from Afghan territory.

EU-Taliban Migration Talks: Belgium issued one-day visas to a five-person Taliban delegation for closed-door EU talks in Brussels focused on deportations and “dignified returns,” drawing sharp criticism from rights groups and lawmakers who warn the EU is trading principles for deportation deals. EU Asylum Pressure: The meetings come as EU governments push to speed up returns of Afghans whose asylum claims fail, despite no EU member recognizing the Taliban and ongoing rights concerns. Kabul Market Fire Losses: A fire at Kabul’s Mandawi (Zardad) market caused losses of at least 8 million afghanis, with officials citing an electrical short circuit; firefighters saved hundreds of nearby shops and warehouses. Herat Urban Planning: Herat’s city master plan was approved by the Islamic Emirate, outlining zoning, new development areas, industrial zones, logistics centers, and infrastructure upgrades aimed at boosting investment. Labor Market Strain: A WFP report says unskilled Afghan laborers find work on average just 1.9 days per week, underscoring weak livelihoods despite steadier food markets. Water & Agriculture Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Afghanistan agreed to set up a Kabul-based education and research center on water management, irrigation, and sustainable agriculture, targeting training and joint research for food security.

Afghanistan–Qatar Diplomacy: Afghanistan’s Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar met Qatar’s ambassador in Kabul to discuss bilateral ties. Industrial Growth in Bamyan: Bamyan’s industry officials say 32 production facilities have started operating since 2021, spanning carpet weaving, handicrafts, detergents and dairy, with investments reported in the afghani range and new licenses issued to hundreds of companies. Regional Trade Push (Kazakhstan): Kazakhstan opened a trade house in Kabul to showcase and sell goods, including food, everyday items, auto showrooms and a pharmaceutical warehouse; the move is framed as a boost for exporter access. Water & Agriculture Research: Kazakhstan and Afghan universities signed an agreement to set up a Kabul-based water resources and irrigation research center focused on sustainable agriculture and climate adaptation. Transport & Logistics Outlook: Kazakhstan-Afghanistan cooperation also includes plans around transport and trade links, with officials discussing broader regional connectivity. Household Cost Pressure: Kabul residents and drivers say fuel and gas prices remain high despite global oil declines, squeezing household budgets and business operations. Health Supply Strain: Hemophilia patients in Afghanistan report shortages of clotting factors, forcing frequent visits for plasma transfusions and raising serious treatment and cost stress.

Afghanistan Economy & Trade: Kazakhstan says it wants to process Afghan technical aquamarine and zinc ore at its own facilities, after talks in Kabul with Afghanistan’s acting leadership and sampling work at the Pami-Kakrak deposit. Mining & Industry: Afghanistan and investors signed a major mining lease for the Aybak Cement project in Samangan, granting exploration and mining rights for cement minerals and targeting an initial 1Mta integrated plant to cut reliance on imports. Labor & Livelihoods: A World Food Programme report finds Afghan unskilled workers are getting work for just 1.9 days per week on average, even as food markets look relatively stable and the afghani holds steady. Public Finance & Markets: SCRMET auctions in Turkmenistan recorded foreign-currency transactions worth over $62.52m, including purchases by Afghanistan-linked buyers for fuel and other goods. Governance & Business Climate: Taliban sources say Kabul’s mayor was detained in Kandahar for nearly 20 days amid an alleged corruption probe touching major municipal projects, raising uncertainty for contractors and developers. Regional Cooperation: Kazakhstan’s delegation to Kabul combined humanitarian aid and trade talks, reinforcing a push for deeper economic ties and transport, mining, and investment links. Energy/Geopolitics Watch: A new US-Iran memorandum on the Strait of Hormuz is being questioned by security officials, with implications for shipping and energy costs that can ripple into regional trade. Humanitarian & Health: Rotary’s president-elect says polio-fighting funding pressures won’t stop efforts, pointing to needle-free jet injectors used in Afghanistan to reach hard-to-access communities.

Ghazni Investment & Jobs: Construction has started on Ghazni City’s first underground market, a 309 million afghani project with 700 shops across two floors, expected to finish in two years and create jobs for nearly 3,000 people during construction. Cross-Border Trade Disruption: Hundreds of Pakistani truck drivers and conductors stranded in Afghanistan for about nine months have started returning home as repatriations accelerate, with the Torkham crossing seeing renewed activity and fresh debate over trade and humanitarian responsibilities. Governance & Corruption: KabulNow reports the Taliban mayor of Kabul, Mawlawi Abdul Rashid, has been arrested on corruption charges, alongside 20 district officials, as Afghanistan’s corruption concerns continue to surface. Afghan Health & Funding Pressure: Rotary President-elect Olayinka Babalola says polio eradication will not be derailed by funding pressures, pointing to needle-free jet injectors used in Afghanistan to reach hard-to-immunize communities. Afghan Business Environment: Kazakhstan’s deputy PM says Astana is ready to mediate Afghanistan-Pakistan disputes and highlights new economic steps, including transport subsidies for Kazakh flour to Herat and a plan for a Kabul chamber of commerce. Market Signals: Weekly cotton prices in Pakistan fell sharply, reflecting policy and tax concerns that can ripple into regional trade affecting Afghanistan-linked supply chains. Cost of Connectivity: Afghanistan users report a surge in internet package prices, raising fears for education access—especially for girls—amid ongoing technology restrictions. Returnee Pressure: The Taliban’s returnee commission says 517 families (2,719 people) were registered after entering on June 20, with thousands more relocated and supported, underscoring strain on services. Agriculture Risk: Experts warn soil erosion is accelerating in Afghanistan, driven by climate change, deforestation, and extreme rainfall, threatening long-term agricultural output.

Afghanistan–Kazakhstan Trade Push: Taliban officials say Afghan and Kazakh private firms signed 25 MoUs in Kabul covering medicines, wheat/flour, cooking oil, potatoes and banking cooperation, as both sides target $3 billion in trade. Urban Business Expansion: Ghazni City has started work on a 400 million afghani underground commercial market with about 700 shops, plus banks, hotels and security rooms—aimed at boosting investment and jobs. Internet Affordability Shock: Users report a sharp rise in Afghanistan internet package prices while speeds stay low, hitting online learning—especially for girls—at a time of wider tech restrictions. Refugee & Media Pressure: RSF reports a mass exodus of Afghan journalists since Kabul’s fall, with 677 media workers supported to leave and now spread across 28 countries. Healthcare Strain in Kabul: Caregivers complain about long waits and unprofessional treatment at Kabul hospitals, citing overcrowding, staff shortages and limited resources. Germany Deportation Plan: Germany is reportedly considering up to three charter deportation flights per month for Afghan nationals convicted of serious crimes, drawing renewed rights concerns.

Afghanistan–Kazakhstan Trade Push: Taliban officials and a Kazakh delegation opened a Kabul trade and business forum, with both sides targeting $3 billion in bilateral trade and discussing faster transit, banking cooperation, and expanded agriculture, mining, transport, and local-currency deals. Power and Household Costs: Kabul residents report prolonged electricity outages and Herat residents complain of long daily cuts plus high, non-transparent bills—urging Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat to finish key transmission work. Hunger and Food Security: The EU warned Afghanistan is facing a severe hunger crisis and called for more funding and action, while UN agencies flagged El Niño risks that could worsen conditions in vulnerable countries including Afghanistan. Refugees and Return Reintegration: UNDP said Afghanistan remains among the world’s largest displacement crises, as returnees face poverty and weak services; World Refugee Day coverage also highlighted risks of forced returns and deportations. Regional Connectivity for Trade: Iran launched an Iraq-to-Afghanistan rail freight shipment via Kermanshah, signaling a new transit route that could reduce bottlenecks for Afghan-bound goods. Security and Social Strain: Reports also pointed to killings in Afghanistan’s provinces and ongoing pressures on women and teachers, including forced contributions in schools.

Afghanistan–Kazakhstan Trade Push: Taliban officials met Kazakhstan’s deputy PM Serik Zhumangarin in Kabul to speed up a cooperation roadmap and target $3 billion in annual trade, with talks covering agriculture, mining, transport, railways, banking, and local-currency deals. Regional Logistics: Iran launched its first Iraq-to-Afghanistan joint rail freight via Kermanshah, signaling a new transit route that could reshape corridor economics. Mining Investment: Afghanistan signed a 30-year iron ore extraction contract in Bamyan’s Yakawlang worth over 438.9 million afghanis, with a 20% royalty and processing inside Afghanistan. Refugees & Returns: On World Refugee Day, Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif said 2.4 million Afghans have returned since Sept 2023, while EU and UNHCR/IOM urged more support for returnees facing shelter, jobs, and services gaps; Amnesty called for an end to deportations. Governance & Security: A report says rising crimes under Taliban rule challenge claims of restored safety, while a former Afghan security officer was reportedly killed in Daikundi. Education Pressure: Female teachers in Kabul allege forced money collections for principals’ expenses and ceremonies, with little action from education districts.