AGP Executive Report

India-Afghanistan Trade Talks: India and Afghanistan’s Joint Working Group reviewed measures to boost bilateral trade and economic cooperation, focusing on customs and data-sharing, visa facilitation for Afghan traders, banking/financial cooperation, pharma and agriculture rules, plus energy, investment promotion, tariff concessions, and port connectivity. Kabul Housing Push: Work has started on B4 residential complexes under the “Sulh” Housing Project in Kabul’s Fifth Macroryan area, aimed at easing the housing shortage; officials also pointed to completing stalled projects and highlighted growing demand from migrants and returnees. Afghanistan Diplomacy & Economic Links: Zabihullah Mujahid said Afghanistan expanded economic ties with Russia, Iran, India, and Uzbekistan, with embassies/consulates abroad becoming operational and passport services now running at 28 missions. EU Support for Jobs & Resilience: The EU allocated €10m (with €13.5m total) to the Aga Khan Foundation’s BRIDGE program to strengthen climate resilience, agricultural livelihoods, economic growth and employment across 10 provinces. Afghan Education in Exile: SOLA inaugurated a permanent campus in Rwanda for Afghan girls, continuing education after relocation from Afghanistan. Afghanistan Visas: Afghanistan issued over 200,000 visas to foreign nationals in 2025, signaling continued cross-border movement for business and travel.

Afghanistan–Pakistan trade & connectivity: At the SCO summit in Bishkek, Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif stressed that water must never be weaponised and said terrorism from Afghan territory must end, linking security to regional connectivity and development. Afghanistan investment pitch: The Taliban renewed its push for US investment, offering access to Afghanistan’s estimated $1 trillion mineral wealth and infrastructure plans as Washington keeps the embassy closed and maintains strict travel and sanctions posture. Regional rail/road finance: The Asian Development Bank approved a $400 million BUILD facility for CAREC border upgrades, aiming to cut delays and logistics costs across Afghanistan and neighboring corridors. Afghan business & banking signals: Reports say Afghanistan Bank deposits have climbed to nearly $3 billion, a key indicator for liquidity and financial activity. Women’s education workaround: SOLA opened a permanent school in Rwanda after fleeing Afghanistan, highlighting how Afghan girls’ education is still blocked at home. Security & drugs: In Karachi, authorities arrested eight suspects and seized over 50kg of crystal meth, including Afghan nationals, underscoring cross-border trafficking risks.

Banking & Finance: Afghanistan Banks Association says public deposits in the banking system have climbed to nearly $3 billion, citing rising confidence, while Da Afghanistan Bank says it is pushing commercial banks to improve services and urges citizens to use formal channels. Conflict Impact & Justice: UNAMA reports that victims of Afghanistan’s 2001–Aug 15, 2021 conflict still face severe harm—95% report psychological or emotional damage and 55% never sought justice or compensation—highlighting barriers to access and accountability. Regional Trade & Diplomacy: Afghanistan’s ambassador to Pakistan, Sardar Ahmad Shakib, urged a fresh approach to ties, stressing interdependence through trade, transit, and cross-border movement, and reiterating that Kabul will not allow Afghan soil to be used against Pakistan. SCO Summit & Afghanistan Politics: At the Bishkek SCO summit, leaders backed an inclusive Afghan political setup representing all ethnic and political groups, while also renewing calls for an Afghanistan independent, neutral, peaceful, and free from terrorism and drugs. Kabul Construction: Kabul’s National Procurement Commission approved an eight-story commercial market in Mandawi with about 162 million AFN investment and 560 shops.

Taliban Economy & Investment Pitch: Afghanistan’s Taliban government is offering the U.S. access to its estimated $1 trillion mineral wealth, seeking sanctions relief and more foreign investment, with Kabul framing future ties around mining, infrastructure, agriculture and trade. Cross-Border Human Impact: Reports from the Torkham “Zero Point” crossing describe mass deportations of Afghans from Pakistan and Iran, with families—some even registered—facing renewed hardship as crackdowns tighten. Women’s Livelihoods Under Restrictions: Afghanistan women and girls are turning to virtual classes to keep learning despite severe education limits, highlighting how education access is being reshaped by policy constraints. Regional Trade & Connectivity: India says it is looking for a “sustainable way” to keep working on Iran’s Chabahar port despite U.S. sanctions pressure, aiming to preserve a route toward Afghanistan and Central Asia. Afghanistan Reconstruction Gap: A new look at Afghanistan reconstruction says billions were spent but major projects remain unfinished, underscoring ongoing business and infrastructure risks. Security, Justice & Civilian Claims: Families in Kandahar and other southern provinces are calling for compensation and prosecution over alleged civilian killings during past U.S. operations, adding legal and reputational pressure to foreign involvement.

Afghanistan-US Minerals Push: The Islamic Emirate says the U.S. should move beyond the war-era lens and invest in Afghanistan’s mining, infrastructure, agriculture and trade, while also calling for sanctions relief and rejecting any U.S. military return to Bagram. EU Food Security Boost: The EU added €15m with the UN World Food Programme to back school feeding, climate-resilient livelihoods and agribusiness in Afghanistan, aiming to cut food insecurity and strengthen local private-sector food value chains. Iran-Afghanistan Fuel Cooperation: Afghanistan’s mines and petroleum officials met Iran’s ambassador to discuss expanding oil and gas cooperation and lab-related collaboration. Trade Disruption Watch: Reports say the closure of key Pakistan-Afghanistan transit routes has hit both sides hard—Pakistan losing nearly $1bn in exports and Afghanistan losing hundreds of millions—raising pressure on traders and supply costs. Regional Connectivity Signal: As the SCO summit convenes in Bishkek, leaders flag connectivity and trade corridors; the bloc also keeps Afghanistan on its agenda amid cross-border security and economic concerns.

SCO Summit & Regional Trade: Leaders including Xi, Putin and Modi are set to meet in Bishkek for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s 25th anniversary, with agenda items spanning regional security, connectivity and trade—while the Iran conflict and Afghanistan are expected to stay on the table. Afghanistan Minerals Pitch: The Taliban is inviting the Trump administration to invest in Afghanistan’s lithium and rare earths (over $1tn claimed), pushing for normalized ties and even a reopened US embassy as a path to investment. Afghan Border Shock to Poultry: Pakistan’s poultry exports to Afghanistan remain suspended since last October due to the border closure, leaving surplus supply and pushing producers to sell below cost, hitting jobs and rural incomes. Kabul Export Push: Kabul is cutting air cargo fees at international airports to boost exports, aiming to reduce logistics costs for traders. Humanitarian Supply Chain: WFP says the UAE’s connectivity is keeping aid moving despite disruptions, with shipments from its Dubai hub reaching dozens of countries including Afghanistan. Food Security Signal: Iran reports chicken self-sufficiency, producing over 2 million tonnes annually—an economic and household food-price story with wider regional implications. Disaster Risk Data Sharing: Nepal and China met to improve flood and glacier hazard monitoring; Nepali officials say they still want earlier warnings and better data sharing.

Afghan–Uzbek Trade: Afghanistan and Uzbekistan traders signed 20 business-to-business agreements worth $267m in Kabul, spanning food, textiles, construction materials, livestock, electronics and furniture, with officials urging simpler trade and transit procedures. Currency Management: Da Afghanistan Bank says it collected and destroyed worn-out banknotes worth about AFN 2.5bn over the past year, while urging citizens to exchange worn notes through the central bank or commercial banks to keep currency quality high. Security Claims Denied: Afghanistan’s Interior Ministry says no neighboring country has provided documented evidence of security threats coming from Afghan territory, and denies the presence of groups it says could pose domestic or cross-border threats. Regional Diplomacy & Connectivity: Leaders are set to gather in Bishkek for the SCO summit’s 25th anniversary, with Afghanistan listed as an observer and the bloc emphasizing trade, transport and regional cooperation. Public Health Pressure: UN reporting says more than 100 health centers have been shut in Afghanistan, raising concerns for access to care.

Energy & Local Business: Afghan authorities inaugurated a 41 million afghani power supply network in Paktia, set to reach 1,000+ households and support entrepreneurs in Gardez—an important step for reliable electricity amid long-running shortages and import dependence. Export Pressure on Farmers: Dried fruit traders in Zabul say export bottlenecks are hitting cash flow hard, citing rejected shipments from China and costly fines, while officials point to new trade push plans including outreach to Uzbekistan. Jobs vs. Skills Mismatch: In Bamyan, the Taliban-run municipality shortlisted 121 applicants for a low-grade night watchman post, with many holding bachelor’s degrees—highlighting Afghanistan’s deep unemployment and underemployment problem. Media Freedom Under Strain: The Afghanistan Journalists Center urged the Taliban to reopen the Lapis Media Office in Kabul after it was shut and equipment confiscated, warning independent media face arrests and restrictions. Regional Trade Diplomacy: Uzbekistan reiterated a constructive approach toward Afghanistan, saying economic diplomacy remains a priority even without formal recognition of the Islamic Emirate. Afghan Economy Signals: Coverage also points to signs of economic recovery and infrastructure activity, including rail freight growth and new construction/aid-linked efforts.

Afghanistan Business & Trade: Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev renewed Tashkent’s “constructive approach” toward Afghanistan, saying economic diplomacy is a priority and that Afghanistan is a key market for Uzbek goods—though Uzbekistan still has not formally recognized the Taliban. Media & Civil Society: The Afghanistan Journalists Center urged the Taliban to reopen the Lapis Media Office in Kabul after Taliban intelligence shut it down, confiscating equipment and pushing the case toward court review. Security & Risk: Afghanistan’s Interior Ministry said it has received no documented evidence from neighboring countries of threats originating from Afghan soil, while analysts urged Kabul to use diplomatic channels to share proof. Economy & Recovery: A report highlights signs of economic recovery in Afghanistan, pointing to improved security and movement, but notes major constraints from sanctions, banking limits, weak markets, and high unemployment. Regional Connectivity: With India’s PM Modi visiting Uzbekistan and heading to the SCO summit in Bishkek, trade, investment, energy, and digital connectivity are on the agenda—an indirect boost for Afghanistan’s wider regional trade prospects. Humanitarian/Resettlement: Plymouth City Council received nearly £3m to expand temporary housing for homeless people and Afghan families up to 2029, aiming to reduce reliance on costly short-term accommodation.

Women’s Trade Boost: Herat Women’s Chamber reports nearly 100 tons of women’s handicrafts worth $175,000 exported in five months to the US, Europe, Turkey and nearby markets, with entrepreneurs saying exports are often routed through cargo services. Fuel Costs in Kabul: Petrol jumped from 80 to 87 afghani per liter and diesel from 75 to 79 over one week, continuing a two-month climb that drivers link to regional conflict and say is squeezing already weak business. Rail Connectivity Push: Afghanistan’s Ministry of Public Works says survey and design are underway for 1,537 km of new railway lines across key routes (Torghundi–Herat, Herat–Kandahar, Kandahar–Spin Boldak, Kabul–Kandahar, Andkhoy–Sheberghan), with financing talks involving banks, countries and investors. Regional Security & Business Risk: UN reports Pakistani airstrikes in Paktia’s Samkani killed at least 22 civilians, including children, underscoring instability that can disrupt cross-border trade and logistics. US Policy on Afghanistan: US Congress extended the Afghanistan War Commission mandate for another year, pushing its final report deadline to August 2027. Export Corridors Talk: Kyrgyzstan backs transport corridors like Chabahar and INSTC to cut distance and lower shipping costs for India–Central Asia–Afghanistan trade.

Humanitarian Funding: The EU provided €15 million to the World Food Programme to strengthen climate resilience and local food systems in Afghanistan, including support for livelihoods, women and youth economic opportunities, and school feeding as humanitarian funding shortfalls deepen. Trade & Connectivity: Kabul moved to boost exports by cutting air cargo fees at international airports, while TAPI edged closer to real gas sales as Turkmenistan prepares to supply Herat; Herat’s TAPI section is expected to be commissioned within two months. Regional Deals: Singapore and Uzbekistan took the first step toward a free trade agreement, signaling how Central Asia’s trade push is accelerating—relevant for Afghanistan’s wider regional integration. Energy Security: A new U.S. executive order expands scrutiny of foreign-produced bulk-power equipment, a reminder that energy and infrastructure procurement risks are rising for projects tied to international supply chains. Governance & Rights: Five years after the U.S. withdrawal, Taliban rule is still described as “stable” but not truly governing, with ongoing restrictions and economic strain shaping daily life. Security Incident: Taliban forces reportedly killed two young men in Baghlan and displayed their bodies in a market after accusing them of links to an armed resistance group.

Food Security Crisis: REACH Initiative analysis says emergency-level food insecurity in Afghanistan will hit 4.7 million people in 2026, more than double the prior year, with 17.4 million facing acute hunger and 21.9 million needing humanitarian help. Education & Human Capital: Students in Zabul report textbook shortages and mixed editions two years after Taliban curriculum revisions, raising concerns for learning continuity. Trade & Logistics Finance: The ADB approved a $400 million BUILD facility to modernize border crossing points across CAREC, aiming to cut transport costs and speed movement of goods and people. Afghan Economy & Mobility: Reports say Afghans deported from Iran and Pakistan are struggling with unemployment and poverty after return, with Afghan Red Crescent cash support reaching deported families in Herat. Regional Policy Context: A Foreign Affairs interview revisits Afghanistan five years after the U.S. withdrawal, highlighting ongoing political, economic, and humanitarian pressures under Taliban rule.

Air Cargo Costs & Exports: Afghanistan’s Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation cut air cargo fees at international airports—dropping the aviation security fee from $100 to $10 per ton and ground-handling from $96 to $40—plus discounts for scheduled and special cargo flights, aiming to lower transport costs and boost exports. Trade & Industry Zones: Kabul and Moscow discussed creating a special economic zone at Hairatan Port in Balkh to store, process and package agricultural goods, with talks also touching joint-stock ventures and repairs for Kamaz vehicles. Regional Energy Push: Herat says the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline work in its section is on track to finish within two months, with preparations urged for the gas rollout. Skills & Services Sector: Educational consultancy services in Kabul formed a union to standardize operations, improve coordination and raise service quality for students. Policy & Business Environment: Taliban intelligence reportedly shut Lapis offices inside the MOBY Group compound in Kabul, ordering staff out and halting operations.

Afghan Sports & Media: The Afghanistan Premier League is set to return on December 27 after an eight-year gap, with a franchise-based T20 format and early teams including Axcel United Kabul, Balkh Zwanan and Kandahar Warriors; the league also unveiled the Koh-E-Zafar trophy. Cricket Business Deal: Afghanistan’s India T20I series media and commercial rights have been awarded to Pakistan-based TransGroup, with TPT360 handling production and FanCode streaming in India—another sign of how regional partners are shaping Afghanistan’s sports economy. Public Health & Finance: UNICEF says one million Afghan children face life-threatening malnutrition, underlining the pressure on households and the need for funding to keep aid and services running. Digital Security: Researchers report Android malware targeting car head units, showing how cybercriminals keep expanding into new devices—relevant for Afghanistan’s growing connectivity and trade-linked technology exposure. Women & Entrepreneurship: A new focus on Afghanistan women’s entrepreneurship under Taliban rule highlights how business activity is constrained by rights restrictions, affecting income and market participation.

Water & Cities: Kabul inaugurated a new water transmission network from Maiwand Road to Ibn Sina Hospital, backed by UNICEF, to boost access for 30,000 people and raise daily distribution from 35,000 to 42,000 cubic meters, while officials warn groundwater levels are declining. Humanitarian Funding: UN OCHA says Afghanistan’s Shelter, Land and Site Coordination response faces a $153m shortfall, with only 4.7% of requested funds received so far, as millions still need emergency shelter. Public Health & Compliance: Kabul’s Ministry of Public Health closed 128 pharmacies for violations, including missing documents, unauthorized relocation, and improper pricing display; it also confiscated 708 items of GSK medicines and smuggled drugs for destruction. Nutrition Crisis: UNICEF warns nearly one million Afghan children face death risk from severe acute malnutrition, with 3.7m suffering wasting amid worsening food insecurity and funding gaps. Trade & Investment: Kuwait’s Al-Sayer Group signaled interest in expanding trade and investment in Afghanistan, including exporting Afghan fresh and dried fruits, as officials discussed cooperation across industry, transit, and enterprises. Business Supply Chain: Afghanistan’s Chamber of Commerce says the private sector has reached self-sufficiency in producing 10 construction materials, including rebar, gypsum, bricks, cables, and tiles—urging quality standards to replace imports. Security & Borders: Reports highlight cross-border risks after Pakistani strikes hit Samkani district in Paktia, underscoring pressure on local hospitals and regional stability.

Afghanistan Health & Aid: UNICEF warns that about 3.7 million Afghan children face acute malnutrition, including one million at risk of death without rapid treatment, as clinics are overwhelmed and severe cases rise. Security & Counterterrorism: The U.S. announced rewards of up to $8 million for information leading to the capture of ISIS-K leader Sanaullah Ghafari, and up to $10 million for a senior financial commander, signaling continued pressure on terror financing. Trade & Logistics: UNICEF praised Pakistan Customs for facilitating humanitarian cargo to Afghanistan, with 355 containers moved via land routes including Torkham. Industry & Investment: Afghanistan’s first jewelry industry exhibition opened in Kabul, aiming to boost domestic production, train designers, and expand regional markets. Regional Context: A major U.S. immigration crackdown plans to revoke up to 200,000 visas tied to asylum fraud claims, a policy shift that could affect Afghan diaspora mobility and business travel.