AGP Executive Report

Humanitarian Pressure: The UN World Food Programme says the Middle East conflict is already pushing millions toward hunger, with oil-price and shipping disruptions raising fuel and food costs while aid funding gaps force cutbacks—Afghanistan is among the hardest hit, with WFP projecting 17.4 million people affected and warning the situation could worsen if disruptions persist. Water & Climate Risk: UNAMA reports more than half of Afghanistan’s population is affected by drought and water scarcity, as rivers become unpredictable, irrigation systems collapse, and communities drill deeper wells—hurting crops, safe drinking water access, and livelihoods. Trade & Connectivity: Afghanistan and Uzbekistan are moving to strengthen economic ties: the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce invites Tashkent’s deputy governor to visit Kabul and expects a trade delegation, while the Termez Dialogue highlights regional connectivity efforts that include Afghanistan. Private Sector & Jobs: WFP also flags Afghanistan’s weak labor market and rising unemployment pressures, adding to household vulnerability as food and fuel costs climb. Cricket Pathways: Afghanistan’s Test skipper Hashmatullah Shahidi says the team needs more red-ball cricket to build depth, as Rashid Khan’s future in Tests remains unclear.

Flood Damage: Baghlan’s agriculture officials report floods have destroyed over 70,000 jeribs of farmland, wiping out rain-fed and irrigated plots and hitting farmers’ investments hard. Energy & Trade Shock: The Middle East crisis and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are pushing up fuel and transport costs, with WFP warning the knock-on effects are worsening food insecurity, including in Afghanistan. Women’s Human Capital: UNICEF and rights groups highlight that Taliban restrictions on girls’ education and women’s work are weakening Afghanistan’s economy and future labor supply. Connectivity & Transit: Afghanistan is pushing for expanded transit cooperation at the Termez Dialogue, while regional talks focus on strengthening trade links across Central and South Asia. Security & Markets: Reports point to Kabul’s power outages and slow internet hurting students and business revenue, adding pressure to already fragile economic conditions. Governance & Compliance: A separate regional story underscores how weak regulation and safety enforcement can quickly turn into economic and reputational losses—an issue Afghanistan businesses can’t ignore.

Girls’ Education & Economy: UNICEF warns the Kankor university entrance exam is starting in Kabul with girls barred for a fourth straight year, deepening workforce damage and threatening Afghanistan’s future talent pipeline. Regional Trade & Transit: Afghanistan’s commerce ministry says the country can act as a bridge between Central and South Asia, highlighting the Trans-Afghan Railway and new steps with Uzbekistan to ease transit and trade for exporters. Standards & Consumer Safety: Afghanistan’s quality authority says over 34 tonnes of substandard construction and electrical materials were rejected and sent back at Islam Qala, including batteries and rebar. Security & Markets: A report says Taliban FM claims no armed opposition exists nationwide, even as clashes and mining disputes continue to be reported in the northeast. Connectivity Diplomacy: The Termez Dialogue in Tashkent spotlights political dialogue and economic connectivity, with Afghanistan pushing shared prosperity through rail and transit links. Humanitarian Pressure: UN-linked reporting flags worsening hunger risks as the Middle East crisis threatens to push more Afghans into food insecurity.

Afghan Labor Market Strain: Kabul’s daily wage laborers say jobs are scarce and pay is too low, with WFP noting access to wage work has fallen to nearly two days per week, pushing more educated and rural workers toward informal work. Pakistan Trade Hit: Pakistan’s border closures with Afghanistan since last year have cost Pakistan about $850m in export and transit losses, with 7,500 containers stranded and fruit/vegetable markets squeezed on both sides. Central Asia Trade Upswing: Afghanistan’s trade with Central Asia jumped in 2025, with imports up 43% and exports up 77%, as Hairatan port activity ramps up amid reduced Pakistan routes—though visa and cross-border money transfer frictions remain. Flood Relief Funding: The EU added €50,000 via the Red Cross/Red Crescent to support flood-affected Afghan families with shelter, cash, water and healthcare. Food Security Pressure: WFP warns the Middle East crisis could push 2.3m more Afghans into food insecurity, while WHO flags acute malnutrition risk for over 3m children. Agriculture Under Attack: Locusts and “kafshak” insects are damaging farms in Ghor’s Tulak district, threatening major crop losses as farmers say authorities haven’t acted fast enough. Human Capital Risk from Girls’ Education: UNICEF analysis says bans on girls’ secondary education and limits on women’s work are eroding Afghanistan’s future workforce of teachers and health workers.

Humanitarian Funding: Iceland pledged $402,000 to the Afghanistan Humanitarian Fund, as UN agencies warn only about 16% of the 2026 humanitarian appeal has been secured and millions remain at risk. Food Security Shock: The WFP says the Middle East crisis could push up to 2.3 million more Afghans into food insecurity, driven by higher fuel prices, trade disruptions, and strained aid routes. Urban Life & Environment: Kabul residents complain about worsening civic norms, including livestock keeping in the city, with environmental experts linking the trend to pollution and public health risks. Taliban Intelligence Pressure: Reports describe Taliban recruitment of informants and coercion networks, including alleged targeting of young people for identification and sexual violence. Tourism Demand: Afghanistan’s Ministry of Information and Culture says nearly 4 million people visited destinations during Eid al-Adha, signaling growing domestic tourism potential. Trade & Regional Links: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged de-escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan amid humanitarian fallout, while highlighting EU-Pakistan trade ties. Security & Aid Access: UN warnings also point to obstacles to aid delivery and rising needs as crises compound economic hardship.

Oil & Energy: The Taliban says it has opened five new oil wells in Jawzjan’s Amu Darya basin, using Afghan engineers, signaling a push to expand domestic output even if global market impact is limited. Trade & Diplomacy: A proposed visa-free regime between Afghanistan and Russia is gaining traction, with business leaders arguing it could boost travel, investment, and trade links. Regional Connectivity: The second Termez Dialogue (June 4-6) in Tashkent is set to bring over 150 representatives to focus on Afghanistan-Uzbekistan-Pakistan transit, logistics, and trade cooperation, with Afghan business groups planning meetings. Humanitarian Funding: UN OCHA warns Afghanistan’s 2026 humanitarian plan is only 16% funded ($269m of $1.7b), putting life-saving aid for millions at risk. Security Council Politics: A new UN Security Council report highlights divisions over how to describe the Taliban in official documents and how aid should be linked to rights issues. Water & Daily Costs: Kabul residents report severe drinking-water shortages, forcing families to queue for hours or buy water from tankers, raising living expenses. Women & Displacement: UN Women reports over 100,000 displaced in eastern Afghanistan amid border clashes, with women and girls facing major income and food-access shocks. Cricket & Business Tourism: Afghanistan’s first India-hosted T20I series is confirmed for September in New Delhi, a potential boost for sports-related travel and local spending. Child Education Demand: Orphaned children in Zabul call for more access to modern schooling and dormitory support, citing limited local education options. Border Crime & Migrant Risks: Italian authorities arrested two Pakistani nationals after four migrant farm workers (including three Afghans) were found burned alive in Calabria, underscoring the dangers facing seasonal laborers.

Humanitarian Funding Crunch: OCHA says Afghanistan’s 2026 aid plan is only 16% funded (about $269m of $1.71b), warning millions could lose life-saving support. Women and Girls Under Pressure: UN Women warns around 50,000 Afghan women and girls in conflict-hit eastern areas face rising gender-based violence as healthcare access deteriorates. UN Security Council Watch: UNAMA’s mandate renewal is due, with reports flagging volatile security, cross-border trade disruption with Pakistan, and worsening rights for women and girls. Food Security Leadership: Carl Skau has taken over as acting executive director of WFP, as acute hunger risks expand and funding gaps deepen. Jobs Still Weak: WFP reports Afghanistan’s labor market remains fragile, with casual work averaging just 1.9 days per week in late May. Agriculture Hit: Badghis farmers report wheat bug infestations damaging crops and orchards, threatening rural incomes. Cyber Threats: Researchers say Pakistan-aligned SideCopy used Xeno RAT in spear-phishing attacks targeting Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance and provincial revenue offices. Trade/Travel Idea: A Russian business center head proposes visa-free travel between Russia and Afghanistan to boost trade and tourism. Local Economy Workaround: A feature highlights mass weddings in Kabul as a cheaper way for couples to marry amid economic hardship.

Afghanistan-Russia Trade: Afghanistan’s bilateral trade with Russia nearly doubled in 1404, rising from $296m to $590m, though exports from Afghanistan remain small (about $5m) compared with imports like fuel, timber and gas. Humanitarian Pressure on Afghans in Iran: NRC chief Jan Egeland warns that Iran’s war has shattered the lives of millions, with 3.2m displaced and Afghan refugees among the most vulnerable, as returnees face limited capacity and support in Afghanistan. Child Marriage Crackdown: The UN Committee on the Rights of the Child condemns Taliban decrees that legitimize child marriage and treat girls’ silence as consent, urging an explicit ban and restoration of girls’ education and rights. Refugee Enforcement in Pakistan: Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa authorities plan a crackdown on Afghan refugees who missed repatriation deadlines, including actions against businesses and landlords. Sanctions and Banking Bottlenecks: Afghanistan’s acting ambassador in Doha says travel restrictions and sanctions haven’t solved problems and are blocking economic growth, while frozen assets and banking limits remain major hurdles.

Humanitarian Stress Test: WHO warns 3.7 million Afghan children under 5 face acute malnutrition in 2026, with about 95,000 projected to develop severe acute malnutrition—highlighting how food insecurity, disease and weak access to health services are compounding risk. Agriculture & Food Security: Herat farmers report a sunn pest infestation damaging wheat harvests, blaming ineffective pesticides and lack of government support, raising fears for rural incomes and food supply. Local Development Spending: Logar province plans development projects worth 129 million afghanis (over $2m) across districts this year, targeting infrastructure, public services and community support. Governance & Assets: The Taliban issued a law giving the leader final authority over returning assets of people labeled “opponents,” tightening control over property and income for those deemed to oppose the regime. Education Under Pressure: Afghan children continue pursuing schooling despite poverty and shortages, with many schools lacking basic water, sanitation and heating—yet families still treat education as a path forward. Regional Trade Signals: Reports say Afghanistan and Russia signed a military-technical cooperation deal, a reminder that security ties can quickly spill into broader economic and connectivity calculations.

Iran-Afghanistan Economic Talks: Iran’s Khorasan Razavi governor met Afghanistan’s Mashhad consul general to push expanded trade, joint investment, easier work visas, and better border entry/exit management, with analysts citing Afghanistan-Iran trade now at about $3.5 billion and urging border infrastructure and customs fixes. Pharma Supply: Russia’s Pharmasyntez says it will start exporting medicines to Afghanistan this summer after an agreement with Kabul’s health ministry, with early shipments expected within two months, as patients stress the need for quality drugs. Firearms Regulation: Afghanistan’s Interior Ministry says firearm licenses will now follow a new procedure and criteria to curb gun ownership culture, with weapons routed through security agencies and regulated for economic/commercial entities. Trade/Transit Pressure: Reports say repatriation from Pakistan is resuming after Eid while the Torkham border closure continues to disrupt traders and transport, with shops tied to illegal businesses sealed in Khyber. Security-Policy Shift: Russia and the Taliban signed a military-technical cooperation deal, with Moscow citing regional security and trade, and concerns about cross-border militant threats. Human Capital Under Strain: Coverage highlights Kabul families struggling to buy school supplies and a broader education squeeze, while WHO flags tobacco harms as a public health and policy challenge.

Afghanistan–Iran Economic Ties: Iran’s Khorasan Razavi governor says Afghanistan and Iran need joint investment and closer cooperation to drive economic growth, urging both sides to use existing capacities and align on issues like narcotics. Humanitarian & Food Security: WFP warns Afghanistan’s hunger crisis is worsening as drought, economic distress, forced returns and displacement collide with shrinking aid; it says it needs $313 million for March–August 2026 but has only received about half. Public Health: WHO marks World No Tobacco Day by urging stronger action against tobacco in Afghanistan, citing deceptive industry tactics and noting widespread use, including naswar and rising youth consumption. Education & Jobs: A Kabul feature highlights how families struggle to buy notebooks and school bags, while a separate report says Afghanistan’s first modern women’s fashion factory has expanded, using computerized machinery to create local employment. Road Safety for Returnees: Two separate reports describe deadly truck crashes involving Afghan returnees from Pakistan—one in Laghman killing 20 with 33 injured, another reporting at least 18 dead—blaming factors like driver fatigue and calling for emergency response and support. Security & Governance: The Taliban announced a spring offensive (“Operation Omari”), promising large-scale attacks while saying it will establish governance mechanisms in areas it controls.

Afghanistan–Uzbekistan Trade Push: An Afghan delegation joined Uzbekistan’s 65th International Flower Festival in Namangan, pitching Afghan flowers, agriculture and handicrafts to regional investors and private-sector partners through trade fairs running until July 12. Humanitarian & Transport Shock: A truck carrying Afghan returnees from Pakistan overturned on the Kabul–Nangarhar highway in Laghman’s Qarghayi district, killing at least 22 people (including 10 children) and injuring 30+ as authorities said the driver fell asleep. Security & Cross-Border Tensions: Pakistan’s foreign minister raised concerns with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about militant use of Afghan territory, while separate reporting links Afghan-based sanctuaries to Pakistan’s Balochistan Liberation Army operations. Digital Threats to Revenue: A Pakistan-linked threat actor reportedly launched a spear-phishing campaign against Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance, targeting provincial revenue directorates with malware designed to steal staff directories and disrupt operations. Regional Connectivity Watch: Work continues around major regional corridors and projects, including references to TAPI and Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan infrastructure cooperation, as countries seek faster trade routes.

Trade & Transit: Afghanistan’s trade with India hit $1.001bn in 1404, up 12% year-on-year, with exports like figs, saffron, raisins and pistachios rising despite ongoing transit limits; analysts point to the need for more alternative corridors as Chabahar faces delays. Border Economics: The Afghanistan–Pakistan border closures are deepening the economic squeeze, with Kandahar’s pharmaceutical market hit hard after imports of Pakistani medicines were halted, pushing prices up and quality down as traders resort to unofficial routes. Infrastructure & Logistics: Afghanistan’s rail freight capacity is getting a boost with a new terminal on the Hairatan line, supporting regional movement and trade. Humanitarian & Aid Access: The UN says obstacles to aid deliveries in Afghanistan are growing, while WFP warns that disruptions around Iran’s ports are reducing food stocks for vulnerable groups. Skills & Jobs: UNICEF is backing technical training for Kandahar youth, including solar energy skills, aimed at income generation. Regional Security: CSTO leaders warn that Afghanistan–Pakistan tensions are spilling into broader regional stability, urging stronger border security cooperation.

Afghanistan–Russia Security Ties: Russia has agreed to provide modern air-defence systems and broader military assistance to the Taliban administration, with discussions led by Taliban defence minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid during a Moscow visit. Kabul Education Costs: Low pay, delayed salaries and heavy workloads are pushing Kabul’s private school teachers into hardship, raising concerns about education quality and the future of the sector. Kandahar Livelihood Shift: In Shah Wali Kot, farmers say beekeeping support is improving incomes and could reduce incentives to return to illicit cultivation, after UNODC-backed distribution of honeybee colonies. Women’s Small Businesses in Ghor: Women in Ghor report that Taliban restrictions plus reduced international aid have crippled small businesses that once provided income and financial independence. Herat Child Labour Pressure: An investigation in Herat finds children working in unsafe, exploitative conditions—often near drug use and crime—with limited access to schooling. Trade & Transport: Afghanistan has completed works to boost freight capacity on the Uzbekistan–Mazar-i-Sharif railway line, opening a new fifth freight facility on the route.

Afghanistan–Central Asia Trade: Uzbekistan’s private sector signed new trade agreements and memorandums with Afghanistan worth over $5 billion in the past eight months, covering fruits, stones, coal, cement, carpets, cotton, food and pharmaceuticals, with bilateral trade turnover rising from about $400–500m to $1.5bn and potentially nearing $5bn in 1–2 years. Regional Diplomacy: Kabul’s Islamic Emirate says it is pursuing “balanced and constructive” relations with neighbors, citing ties with Uzbekistan, Iran, China and Turkmenistan, while saying tensions with Pakistan stem from Islamabad’s “actions and violations” and that diplomatic efforts continue to reduce friction. Defense Cooperation Watch: Russia and the Taliban signed a military-technical cooperation pact in Moscow, with no full details released, signaling deeper Moscow influence in Central Asia and potential shifts in security cooperation despite constraints from sanctions and Russia’s war pressures. Humanitarian & Economic Pressure: A World Bank warning highlights worsening poverty and economic pressures in Afghanistan, as the country faces a deepening humanitarian crisis.

Trade & Markets: Afghanistan’s trade with Central Asia topped $1.27 billion in the first five months of 2026, with exports around $74 million and imports about $1.204 billion, led by dried and fresh fruits, talc stone, vegetables, medicinal plants and juices—though traders warn banking gaps, transit problems and high transport costs still cap export growth. Energy & Regional Connectivity: Turkmenistan and UN officials met to push forward the long-stalled TAPI gas pipeline, focusing on practical implementation inside Afghanistan and aligning UNAMA efforts for regional economic recovery. Security & Diplomacy: Afghanistan and Russia signed a military and technical cooperation agreement in Moscow, with both sides citing counter-terrorism and drug-fighting goals and analysts expecting a new phase of defense ties. Human Rights & Women’s Economy: UN Women renewed calls for Afghan women and girls to live free from violence and restrictions, warning that bans on education and employment are deepening Afghanistan’s humanitarian and economic crisis. Digital Operations: HALO Trust expanded Microsoft 365 governance across 36 countries using CoreView and Cyber Vigilance, aiming to improve centralized control while letting local teams operate securely. Public Health: World Menstrual Hygiene Day highlighted ongoing barriers in Afghanistan—fear, shame, lack of prior information, and limited access to sanitary products and healthcare.