AGP Executive Report

Regional Trade: Balkh’s exports to neighboring markets jumped to over $67m in the first quarter of 1405, up sharply year-on-year, with carpets, fruits and Karakul pelts leading the push. Cross-Border Transit: Afghanistan, Iran and Tajikistan signed a trilateral transport corridor deal, aiming to improve land connectivity and reduce logistics friction for regional trade. Humanitarian & Health: Russia warned that Afghanistan’s humanitarian situation is worsening, citing high infant mortality and rising polio risk amid aid cuts and frozen assets. Afghan Returns: Afghans deported from Pakistan told TOLOnews they faced mistreatment, rushed deadlines and even home demolitions, raising concerns over how returns are handled. Security & Markets: Fuel prices in Afghanistan surged as regional tensions disrupted supply, adding pressure to already tight household budgets. Women’s Rights: The OIC women’s conference in Pakistan adopted calls to remove barriers to girls’ education and women’s employment, explicitly referencing Afghanistan’s restrictions. Food Supply: Sindh recovered 150,000 tons of wheat from hoarders, saying the move helped cut prices by 13%.

Regional Trade Corridor: Iran, Tajikistan and the Taliban agreed to set up a new road transit corridor through Afghanistan, aiming to cut freight costs and speed customs and border procedures; a first pilot shipment is expected within a month. UN Leadership: UN Secretary-General António Guterres appointed Rabab Fatima as the new head of UNAMA and Special Representative for Afghanistan, with women’s rights and humanitarian coordination expected to stay central. Security & Drugs: Afghan counter-narcotics police seized hundreds of kilograms of illicit drugs in Nimroz and also burned large quantities of opium in Badakhshan, arresting seven smugglers. Humanitarian Pressure: Russia warned of worsening humanitarian conditions in Afghanistan, citing infant mortality and a rise in polio cases. Jobs & Livelihoods: With formal employment scarce, remittances remain a key lifeline for Kabul households, as inflation and weak investment continue to squeeze incomes. Currency & Markets: Afghanistan’s domestic exports reportedly topped $45m in the first three months of 1405, while fuel price pressures were also flagged amid regional disruptions. Skills for Youth: UNICEF stressed that professional skills training can open better pathways for Afghan youth, especially as restrictions limit education and work.

Afghan Trade & Exports: Afghanistan’s domestic exports topped $45M in the first three months of 1405, with Herat Chamber of Commerce reporting 53,000 metric tons shipped via Islam Qala and Torghundi—boosted by demand for saffron and other Herat-made goods. EU Jobs & Skills: The EU Delegation to Afghanistan marked World Youth Skills Day by backing education, technical training and apprenticeships aimed at helping young Afghans start businesses and earn income, with girls and boys included. Banking & Theft: Badghis Kabul Bank officials were arrested after 8 million Afghanis were reportedly stolen, spotlighting financial controls and accountability. Women’s Economic Pressure: Fuel prices surged amid regional tensions, adding pressure to household costs and trade margins. Humanitarian Access: UN/WFP aid deliveries resumed via Torkham as aid convoys entered Afghanistan again, supporting relief operations amid ongoing needs. Governance & Risk: UN-Habitat highlighted Afghanistan’s housing crisis tied to widespread poverty, while UNICEF warned millions of young children face malnutrition risk.

Afghan Governance & Finance: Taliban forces detained eight former government officials and security personnel in Ghor province, including a former agriculture revenue director and staff linked to Bank-e-Milli Afghanistan, with detainees’ whereabouts still unknown. Trade & Connectivity: India says the Kabul–Delhi air corridor remains fully operational for commercial goods, supporting Afghan exports like fruits, nuts, saffron and herbs. Regional Commerce: Afghan, Russian and Kazakh traders signed $446.6m MoUs, pointing to continued cross-border dealmaking despite instability. Humanitarian Logistics: UN aid deliveries resumed via Torkham, with reports of aid convoys entering Afghanistan after a long gap. Women & Livelihoods: A skills and income-generation push in Laghman highlights how local programs are trying to protect household earnings amid crisis conditions. Security & Business Risk: Rising theft and insecurity in Herat is pushing residents to fear for property and livelihoods. Education Pressure: UNESCO warns education aid could fall sharply by 2027, raising new risks for Afghanistan’s schooling pipeline.

Humanitarian Logistics: UN aid resumes via Torkham as a WFP convoy of 20 containers carrying food crossed into Afghanistan after Afghan customs cleared the transit, following a nine-month pause tied to deteriorating Pak-Afghan relations. Trade & Connectivity: Afghanistan’s trade links get a boost as Afghan agri officials push an air-freight corridor and India-Afghanistan talks highlight investment in modernizing agriculture. Regional Markets: Afghan traders sign $446.6m MoUs with Russian and Kazakh partners, signaling renewed interest in regional commerce. Women’s Livelihoods: Taliban restrictions keep tightening—reports highlight women’s reduced access to income and education, while UN warnings say millions of children face heightened malnutrition risk. Infrastructure Push: The Islamic Emirate orders swift completion of the Wakhan Corridor road, framed as a faster gateway for commercial goods across Central Asia. Currency Stability: Afghanistan’s central bank plans an auction of $16m to support currency stability. Geopolitics With Trade Fallout: Renewed US-Iran tensions and Hormuz disruption fears raise costs and threaten supply chains that Afghanistan depends on.

Afghanistan Trade & Investment: Afghan traders and partners from Russia’s Dagestan and Tyumen regions and Kazakhstan signed MoUs worth 446.62 million afghanis in Kabul, covering construction materials, pharmaceuticals, food products and agricultural services, as the ACCI pushes B2B deals to expand regional commerce. Regional Energy & Logistics: Kazakhstan is moving to secure port access by building a logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajee Port under a 27-year deal, aiming to strengthen trade corridors that could also matter for Afghanistan-linked routes. Humanitarian Risk From Climate: The El Niño system is strengthening fast, with Afghanistan flagged among countries at highest risk for floods, disease and drought impacts, especially as aid and coping capacity are already strained. Women’s Rights & Policy Pressure: The OIC’s women’s ministerial conference in Pakistan urged the Taliban to lift restrictions on girls’ secondary education and women’s employment, framing the limits as harmful to Islam’s values and to sustainable development. Security & Economic Stability: Pakistan’s Operation Shaban in Balochistan reported more terrorist deaths, underscoring how regional instability can spill into trade and cross-border business planning. Afghan-India Business Links: Taliban agriculture minister Ataullah Omari’s India visit renewed calls for Indian support to modernize Afghanistan’s agriculture, signaling continued engagement with potential investment interest.

Humanitarian Risk: The International Rescue Committee warns El Niño is intensifying and could trigger severe flooding, disease outbreaks, and drought across East Africa and Asia, naming Afghanistan among the most at-risk countries. Trade & Transit: Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs cleared UN humanitarian cargo to transit into Afghanistan via the Torkham border, aiming to keep aid deliveries moving. Women’s Economic Rights: Taliban authorities barred women from selling handicrafts at a major Jalalabad trade fair, shutting off one of the few market channels for home-based female entrepreneurs. Taliban Restrictions: In Herat, Taliban officials defended a crackdown on women’s dress codes, saying there is “no oppression” despite reports of detentions and fear disrupting daily life and work. Central Bank & Currency: Afghanistan’s central bank plans to auction $16 million to support currency stability. Agriculture & Exports: Pistachio exporters in Badghis and Herat are alarmed by declining yields and destruction affecting supply and trade. Regional Connectivity: Turkmenistan highlighted support for major corridors and the TAPI gas pipeline, linking it to regional economic stability and security. Security & Courts: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio escalated efforts to “dismantle” the International Criminal Court, a move that could shape international legal pressure affecting Afghanistan-related diplomatic and security narratives.

Afghan Finance & Currency: Da Afghanistan Bank will auction $16 million to steady the afghani after recent dollar pressure, inviting moneychangers and private banks to bid. Business & Tax Policy: The Taliban announced tax cuts, including cutting corporate income tax from 20% to 10% and easing income tax for lower earners, while also introducing new fuel-related taxes—though state spending details remain opaque. Women, Education & Rights: Taliban officials defended the Herat dress-code crackdown as “no oppression,” but the move is hitting commerce as women stay home; meanwhile, girls in Bamiyan say secondary education is effectively closed under Taliban rules, pushing some into work and early marriage. Humanitarian & Public Services: UN-Habitat said it will reconstruct a 1.4-kilometer road in Kabul’s District 19 with JICA support to improve access to services and economic opportunities; UNICEF warned 3.7 million Afghan children under five face heightened malnutrition risk. Regional Diplomacy & Trade: Iran’s deputy foreign minister arrived in Kabul for consular talks with Taliban officials, focusing on people-to-people cooperation and consular issues. Water Access: Sar-e-Pol province received drinking water networks for 3,500 families, funded with UNICEF and OCHA support.

Herat Women’s Entrepreneurship: A Herat cosmetics factory is exporting 12 medicinal-herb beauty products to the U.S., France and Iran, employing 20+ women and girls and expanding from a 5,000-afghani start. Local Market Disruption: In Herat, a Taliban morality police dress-code crackdown is reportedly driving women away from markets, cutting shop turnover by about half as female customers stay home. Trade & Industry Promotion: A three-day products exhibition in Nangarhar opened with nearly 100 booths, aiming to connect Afghan manufacturers to wider buyers and contracts. Women’s Education Shock: Kankor 2026 results again highlight the absence of girls from the exam, undermining the exam’s role as the main higher-education gateway. Nutrition Alarm: UNICEF warns 3.7 million Afghan children under five face heightened malnutrition risk, urging urgent support before the crisis worsens. Cross-Border Business Pressure: Worn banknotes are disrupting daily trade in Balkh markets, while fuel-price fluctuations are squeezing drivers’ earnings in Kabul. Regional Policy Spillover: Pakistan’s deportation and crackdown on illegal Afghan immigrants continues, with Punjab repatriating 138,342 cases—an economic and labor shock for families tied to cross-border work.

Women’s Market Shock in Herat: Taliban morality police dress-code enforcement is driving women away from Herat markets, cutting turnover by about half as female shoppers—normally the core customer base—stay home, according to shopkeepers and residents. Agriculture Diplomacy: Afghanistan’s Agriculture Minister Mawlawi Ataullah Omari wrapped up a high-level visit to India, meeting Shivraj Singh Chouhan to expand cooperation on irrigation, livestock, seed systems, climate-resilient crops, and agri-trade. Education Access via Online Scholarships: India announced 1,000 online scholarships for Afghan students for 2026–27 through its e-Vidya Bharati platform, with applications opening July 15. Local Trade Push: A three-day domestic products exhibition opened in Mazar-i-Sharif with 170 booths to boost local production, consumption, and investment. Industry Export Signal: Afghan handwoven carpets are being exported to 37 countries, with the sector employing over 15,000 people and earning $18m in the past year, per the Carpet Union.

Domestic Trade Push: A three-day “Sultan Mahmood Ghaznavi” style domestic products exhibition opened in Balkh with 170+ booths from Kabul, Nangarhar and Ghazni, aiming to expand markets and boost confidence in locally made goods. Regional Trade Shock: Afghan traders are jittery after US strikes reportedly disrupted Iran’s Chabahar Port, a key bridge for India-Afghanistan trade that helps bypass Pakistan; officials say the immediate hit may be limited, but broader port damage is a concern. Aid and Health Pressure: WHO says 22+ million people in Afghanistan need humanitarian health help, with 150 facilities suspending operations due to funding shortages; UN Women adds that global aid cuts have already cut off at least one million women and girls from life-saving support. Education Bottleneck: Young Afghans say the Taliban-run Kankor exam lacks transparency and, combined with tuition costs, is pushing many out of both public and private universities. Population Reality Check: UNAMA estimates Afghanistan’s population at 48.6m for 2026, while Taliban-linked NSIA puts it at 37.2m—both figures underline mounting pressure on jobs, services and planning.

World Population Day: UN estimates Afghanistan’s population at 48.6 million in 2026, while NSIA figures put it above 37 million for 1405 (2026), as rapid growth and the return of millions of migrants strain jobs, services, and planning. Returnee Pressure: UNAMA says over 6 million Afghans have returned from Iran and Pakistan since Nov 2023, with many young people—an opportunity only if economic opportunities expand. Agriculture & Trade: Taliban agriculture officials used a New Delhi forum to urge Indian investment and technology transfer in mechanization, seeds, food processing, cold-chain, irrigation, and rural development. Electricity Planning: Afghanistan approved a five-year power development plan, signaling continued focus on energy for growth. Infrastructure in Kandahar: Rural development projects are connecting Kandahar districts to the provincial capital, including a major road link for Shorabak. Debt vs Education: UNESCO warns developing countries, including Afghanistan (with large education-aid losses), spend more on debt repayments than schooling—raising long-term growth risks. Women, Rights, Digital Access: An OIC women’s affairs ministerial in Pakistan will discuss expanding women’s political and economic participation and access to financial services and technology, while Afghanistan’s digital access efforts remain a key theme. Security & Justice: Kenya extradited Afghan national Abdul Zahir Qadeer to the US over alleged drug and firearms charges.

Infrastructure & Connectivity: Kandahar is pushing road links to the provincial capital, with projects connecting Shah Wali Kot, Maiwand and Miyan Shin already underway and a new Shorabak road project worth about 365 million Afghanis starting now, while Ghorak and Maruf links are planned by year-end—aimed at cutting travel time to hospitals and markets. Agriculture Trade & Investment: Afghanistan’s acting agriculture minister Mawlawi Ataullah Omari used a visit to India to pitch modern farming, seed technology and mechanization, agreeing to set up a joint agricultural working group to coordinate long-term cooperation and value-add opportunities. Energy & Household Costs: Fuel prices in Kabul have been swinging repeatedly over the past two weeks—petrol up to around AFN 77 per liter, diesel near AFN 73, and LPG rising to about AFN 64—pressuring drivers’ earnings and household budgets. UN Leadership & Rights: UN Secretary-General António Guterres appointed Rabab Fatima as the new head of UNAMA, with local voices urging the mission to prioritize women’s education, work rights and stronger scrutiny of rights violations. Humanitarian Funding Pressure: UN Women reports that at least 1 million women and girls have lost access to humanitarian aid after major funding cuts, including in Afghanistan, as many partner groups face staff cuts and possible closures. Regional Diplomacy: India and Afghanistan held their fourth joint coordination committee meeting in New Delhi, reviewing humanitarian support, development partnerships, food security, healthcare, education, sports and trade—along with visa and bilateral trade challenges.

Afghan Trade & Industry: Kabul’s commerce minister met exporters shipping goods to Eurasian Economic Union markets and said the government is pushing export processing centers in Kabul and regional zones to streamline trade and cut customs barriers. Cement & Jobs: Taliban officials launched the second phase of the Jabal Siraj cement factory in Parwan, saying it will boost domestic production and employment, but key details like budget, timeline, and how it fits earlier deals were not shared. Power & Cost of Living: Kabul residents report worsening, prolonged power cuts as temperatures rise, disrupting households and businesses; Afghanistan’s reliance on imported electricity leaves supply vulnerable. Agriculture Modernisation: Afghanistan’s agriculture minister urged Indian technical support to modernise farming and processing, noting most Afghans depend on agriculture and livestock. Women & Aid Funding: UN Women reports that at least one million women and girls lost access to life-saving support due to global donor aid cuts, with many Afghan-linked women’s groups at risk. Regional Security Spillover: Pakistan’s PM says militants are crossing from Afghanistan into Pakistan to carry out attacks, renewing pressure on the Taliban amid a deteriorating security dispute.

Cement Push: Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate kicked off construction of a second Jabal al-Seraj cement plant in Parwan, with Deputy PM Baradar calling it a major step toward industrial self-sufficiency and possible export capacity once completed. UN Livelihoods: UNHCR and UNDP urged stronger investment in protection, livelihoods, and reintegration for Afghan returnees, warning that returns are adding pressure to local communities and calling for structured jobs and infrastructure support. India-Afghanistan Trade Talks: India and Afghanistan held their 4th Joint Committee Meeting in New Delhi, reviewing cooperation across humanitarian aid, food security, healthcare, education, visas, and trade, with India reiterating support for Afghanistan’s development needs. Agriculture Cooperation: Ahead of the committee, Afghanistan’s agriculture leadership met India’s agriculture minister and agreed to set up a Joint Working Group to map a long-term roadmap for agriculture and livestock collaboration. Returnee Support Gap: A separate report highlighted funding shortfalls that have forced closures/suspensions of parts of Afghanistan’s health and rehabilitation services, raising new concerns for basic economic and social stability.

Health & Humanitarian Funding: WHO says nearly 150 Afghan health centers have shut since early 2026 due to funding shortfalls, leaving 22 million people needing humanitarian help and 14.4 million in need of healthcare. Fuel & Transport Costs: Kabul fuel prices keep climbing—petrol around 72 afghanis/liter and diesel 68—squeezing rickshaw and passenger drivers as fares lag behind costs. Power & Industry: The Taliban announced construction of the second phase of the Jabal Saraj cement plant in Parwan, targeting 10,000 tons/day, while also claiming a five-year electricity development push. Trade & Finance: Kazakhstan and Afghanistan discussed expanding correspondent banking and direct payment channels to boost trade; January–April 2026 turnover hit $342.4m. Agriculture Cooperation: Afghanistan’s agriculture minister met India to set up a joint working group and roadmap for long-term cooperation. Women’s Rights in Aid: UN officials urged the Taliban to allow women’s full participation and ensure female humanitarian staff can reach women and girls. Local Business Push: Ghazni hosted a three-day agriculture and industrial expo aimed at boosting domestic sales and reducing import reliance.