AGP Executive Report

Afghanistan Energy Push: Kabul has approved a five-year electricity development plan aimed at cutting reliance on imported power, with dozens of hydropower, solar, wind and coal projects plus new transmission lines, substations and distribution work. Women & Jobs in the Private Sector: A new AFP report highlights women returning from Iran and Pakistan finding rare work in a dried-fruit factory in Balkh, underscoring how Taliban restrictions keep many women out of education and most jobs. Pharma Supply Expansion: The Taliban says it has licensed about 100 pharmaceutical companies since halting imports from Pakistan, claiming progress toward self-sufficiency in multiple medicine types amid concerns over higher prices. Education Under Restrictions: Shafaq Online School says it is supporting Afghan girls’ learning through online classes limited by the ban on education beyond grade six, while UN officials urge lifting restrictions to enable women’s participation. Humanitarian Pressure: UN agencies warn nearly three-quarters of Afghans can’t meet basic needs as returns, poverty and climate shocks strain livelihoods and services. UN Housing Support: The UN reports 425 families identified for permanent housing assistance in northeastern Afghanistan, alongside mine-clearing and infrastructure work in Kunduz and Baghlan.

Afghanistan Humanitarian Pressure: UN officials warn Afghanistan cannot recover without women’s full participation, urging the Taliban to lift restrictions on girls’ education and women’s work as three in four Afghans struggle to meet basic needs. Kabul Housing Costs: Residents complain that rents in Kabul have surged, with some saying monthly payments have more than doubled, pushing families further into financial strain. Return and Recovery: UNDP reports worsening hardship tied to conflict, earthquakes, and poverty, highlighting recovery efforts in returnee areas and the need to move from return to real recovery. Labor Migration Push: Afghanistan’s workers’ union says Iran, Qatar, Türkiye and others are seeking thousands of skilled Afghan workers, with training underway to meet credential requirements. Afghan Economy Signals: Afghanistan inks an $89m alluvial gold deal to revive parts of the economy, while reports also point to construction-sector stress from rising material prices and Taliban extortion. Security and Social Strain: A 25-year-old man died by suicide in Faryab, with local sources linking rising youth suicides to hopelessness, unemployment, and limited mental health support.

Afghanistan’s mining push: Afghanistan signed $89.06m alluvial gold extraction deals in Takhar (10-year concessions for Shul Dara and Warchi), aiming to boost jobs and local community projects alongside 40% royalty remittances. Regional trade & logistics: Uzbekistan will open an aviation “green corridor” to simplify cargo shipments for Afghan businessmen via international flights, while Afghanistan-Uzbekistan rail freight reportedly doubled in the first five months—both moves target faster, cheaper cross-border commerce. Returnees and jobs: UNDP and UNHCR officials visited Balkh projects including a dry fruit factory and a carpet weaving center, highlighting employment for returnees and the need to link aid with longer-term economic recovery. Education access for returnees: Kabul says 82,832 returnee children have taken placement tests and been referred into schools since the start of the 1404 academic year. Women’s economic limits: UN warns Afghanistan’s women and girls remain excluded from education, work, and public life—hurting the workforce and long-term recovery. Humanitarian pressure: A UN official said three-quarters of Afghans can’t meet basic needs amid overlapping economic, humanitarian, and climate shocks. Security and drugs: Afghan forces discovered a drug processing lab in Nangarhar and detained two suspects; UN-backed reporting also says most drug treatment centers have shut due to funding cuts. Market signals: SCRMET auctions in Turkmenistan recorded over $10.08m in transactions with Afghan and Uzbek buyers purchasing energy and textile-related goods.

Central Banking: Da Afghanistan Bank will auction up to $16 million on Monday to support the afghani after it weakened to about 63.9 per dollar, continuing its recent FX injections via bank and eligible money-service bidders. Trade & Transport: Afghanistan’s auto parts business in Spin Boldak has “screeched to a halt” as border closures and regional conflict disrupt routes, with traders forced to reroute through longer, costlier paths like the UAE and facing Strait of Hormuz shipping delays. Agriculture Exports: Kandahar exported 182,381 metric tons of fresh and dried fruit worth $428.86 million over the past year, shipping to markets across Asia, the Gulf, Europe and beyond. Migration Pressure: Taliban-linked figures say Pakistan expelled more than 66,000 Afghans between May 30 and July 2, with returns reported via Torkham, Spin Boldak and Bahramcha. Security & Illicit Trade: Afghan police in Takhar seized 60 kg of illicit drugs (52 kg opium, 8 kg hashish) and arrested two suspected smugglers.

Humanitarian Funding: The Norwegian Refugee Council warns Afghanistan is among the world’s least funded humanitarian crises, with only 30.4% of 2026 needs covered by June 24, leaving millions facing conflict, displacement and rising prices. Private Sector & Fuel Imports: The Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment urges tighter controls on substandard fuel imports, calling for only compliant oil and gas from neighboring markets and better coordination to streamline import procedures. Trade & Industry Links: Afghanistan and Iran are set to deepen economic cooperation during Kabul’s Fifth National and International Industry and Mining Exhibition, with talks on trade, industrial partnerships and investment. Security & Cross-Border Risks: Polish authorities detained 54 migrants—including 15 Afghans—hidden in a cargo truck trailer near the Lithuania border, with the group reportedly moved via Latvia and Lithuania before reaching Poland. Sanctions & Crypto Compliance: The U.S. Treasury expanded sanctions tied to ISIS-K crypto activity, and Tether froze more than 100 wallets linked to the network, signaling tighter enforcement affecting regional financing routes.

Afghanistan Economy & Trade: Experts warn that the lack of international recognition continues to weigh on Afghanistan’s economy, limiting investment and cooperation even as the Islamic Emirate points to growing regional ties. Corruption & Business Climate: Systematic corruption is reported inside Afghanistan’s Taliban Interior Ministry, with bribes tied to permits, fuel distribution, procurement of police uniforms, case reviews, and even extortion of shops and small businesses in security districts. Diplomacy & Regional Links: Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi met Bangladesh’s parliament speaker in Tehran to discuss expanding trade and cooperation for Afghanistan’s economic reconstruction. Humanitarian & Infrastructure: UN-Habitat warns Kabul’s water crisis is worsening as groundwater drops and population growth strains supply; major projects like the Panjshir transfer and Shah Toot Dam are cited as key fixes. Migration Pressure: Afghan migration to Europe remains intense amid poverty and uncertainty, with reports of migrants including Afghans detained during illegal border-crossing attempts. Regional Security Spillover: A Taliban-linked warning from Pakistan’s former envoy Asif Durrani says continued Taliban shelter for militant groups could recreate pre-9/11 conditions, raising risks for the region’s stability and trade.

Trade & Markets: Afghanistan’s passport was ranked last globally in the 2026 Global Passport Index, with holders able to access only 24 destinations without prior visa—another reminder of how mobility limits business and investment prospects. Tax & Revenue: Pakistan’s KPRA reported 20% growth in Sales Tax on Services collection for FY2025-26, reaching Rs53.7bn, while noting reduced Infrastructure Development Cess receipts tied to the closure of Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossings. Energy & Costs: Kabul residents reported worsening power outages during summer heat, with DABS blaming higher demand, limited supply, and transmission constraints—an operational drag for households and firms. Local Commerce & Culture: Balkh plans to rebuild the Baihaqi Bookstore site in Mazar-e-Sharif as a modern commercial complex, with space reserved for booksellers—aiming to protect the landmark’s identity while restarting trade. Community-Led Development: In Zabul’s Shajoy district, residents funded school construction for nine schools over two years (3m Afghanis), showing how local support is filling gaps in education infrastructure. Regional Security & Business Risk: The US reiterated support for Pakistan’s right to defend itself against terrorism as militant violence and cross-border tensions remain in focus—conditions that can quickly disrupt trade corridors.

Afghanistan-Iran Diplomacy: Taliban deputy PM for economic affairs Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, condoling the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and discussing ways to deepen bilateral ties, with both sides stressing shared cultural and economic interests. Regional Security & Trade: The US reiterated Pakistan’s right to defend itself against terrorism after a UN vote on the Global Counterterrorism Strategy, following Pakistan’s cross-border counterterrorism actions linked to attacks near the Afghan border. Afghan Business & Industry: Kabul is set to host the fifth National Industry Week exhibition, while separate reports highlight Afghanistan’s push to expand trade and investment links, including an Iran-Afghanistan joint chamber delegation arriving in Kabul to boost commerce. Humanitarian & Funding Pressure: UN agencies warn Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis is worsening as funding gaps widen, with additional reporting noting the country remains among the world’s least-funded emergencies. Health Supply Chains: A feature on local medical device production underscores how Afghanistan’s access to medicines and equipment is shaped by import dependence and global supply disruptions.

Afghanistan-Trade & Industry: Kabul’s business calendar gets a boost as an industry and mining exhibition opens in Kabul to attract investment and boost trade, while a fifth national industry week exhibition is also set to host in the capital. Agriculture & Markets: Balkh melon farmers report a strong harvest but weak prices and no reliable export routes, urging government help to ship to Central Asia (including Uzbekistan) to avoid losses. Tax & Revenue: Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Revenue Authority logged 20% growth in Sales Tax on Services collection for FY2025-26, though infrastructure cess receipts fell after Pakistan-Afghanistan border crossings closed. Humanitarian & Mobility: Iran says it will issue about 2,500 free visas for Afghan nationals to attend Ali Khamenei’s funeral in Tehran and Mashhad, with thousands expected to travel. Business Environment & Services: UN-Habitat warns half of Afghanistan’s population could live in cities by 2060, underscoring rising demand for housing, services, and urban jobs. Regional Finance & Cooperation: UNDP says it met Taliban-controlled central bank officials to discuss microfinance cooperation, signaling continued interest in expanding financial access.

Industry & Trade: Afghanistan’s Fifth National and International Industry and Mining Week Exhibition opened in Kabul, aiming to attract investment and boost exports, with nearly 400 booths and thousands of expected visitors through July 7. Aviation & Connectivity: SAHA Airlines launched scheduled flights linking Tehran–Kabul, Mashhad–Mazar-e-Sharif, and Mashhad–Kandahar, with officials saying fares could drop by up to 50% and competition may improve access. Mining & Extraction: Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum signed a 15-year deal to exploit a salt block in Herat’s Ghoryan district, including a $5.49m investment and royalty terms, alongside a separate contract for another block. Humanitarian Funding: The Norwegian Refugee Council warned Afghanistan is now among the world’s most neglected crises, citing a sharp fall in international aid while needs remain extremely high. Regional Business Links: Uzbekistan’s officials again positioned Tashkent as a bridge for Kabul to reach Western partners, while talks also point to deeper Central Asian trade and investment cooperation. Transport & Trade Costs: Pakistan’s transit curbs are pushing Indian exporters to reroute Afghanistan-bound goods via Dubai, reflecting ongoing bottlenecks in regional logistics. UN Support: Sweden pledged $5.26m to the UN’s Special Trust Fund for Afghanistan as funding shortages worsen.

Healthcare & Cross-Border Access: Afghan-Uzbek Joint Market Hospital is drawing growing demand for specialized care, reporting 134,000 patient visits in two years across 25 specialty departments, with neurology, orthopedics and urology among the most sought services. Microfinance & Financial Inclusion: UNDP’s Afghanistan representative met the Taliban-controlled central bank’s deputy governor to discuss expanding microfinance, with both sides linking broader access to economic growth and poverty reduction. Industry & Trade Promotion: Kabul hosted the Fifth National and International Industry and Mining Week Exhibition, where officials said the goal is to shift Afghanistan from importing toward exporting, backed by incentives like land allocation and tax exemptions. Returnees Need Jobs & Housing: Afghan returnees deported from Pakistan are calling for housing, employment and education support, saying rent costs and job access remain their biggest barriers. Security & Regional Tensions: Pakistan rejected India’s criticism of its anti-terror strikes in Afghanistan, while UNDP and Afghan economic officials continue pushing cooperation amid ongoing cross-border disputes.

Industry & Mining: Taliban officials opened Kabul’s fifth National and International Industry and Mines Week Exhibition, saying it brings “hundreds” of Afghan manufacturers and mining firms and urging investors to back mineral processing, while Abdul Salam Hanafi criticized weak international support for farmers after the poppy ban. Energy & Prices: Kabul fuel prices jumped as petrol rose nearly 14% in two days, with sellers blaming global market moves. Opium & Markets: UNODC says Afghanistan’s opium production fell 95% since 2023, reshaping heroin supply and pushing traffickers toward synthetic opioids. Trade & Investment: Uzbekistan’s trade data show exports down but imports up, with Afghanistan among key export destinations; separately, Uzbekistan and Qatar discussed expanding cooperation to support Afghanistan’s development. Agriculture & Land: Afghanistan’s MoJ says Sar-i-Pul pastureland totaling 3.94 million jeribs was identified and registered in the state land bank, with most still in grazing use. Women & Livelihoods: AFP reports women farmers in Nuristan sustaining winter food supplies despite Taliban limits on employment. Regional Security Spillover: Afghanistan and Pakistan traded accusations over cross-border strikes and drone incidents, adding uncertainty for business and mobility.

Fuel & Inflation Watch: Kabul petrol jumped from AFN 66 to AFN 75 per litre in two days (nearly 14%), with diesel also rising, squeezing transport costs and household budgets as Afghanistan relies heavily on imported fuel and traders warn route disruptions and supply constraints are driving volatility. Economic Outlook: The World Bank says Afghanistan’s economy is recovering, but growth is too weak to lift living standards; per-capita incomes fell 5.6% as demographic pressure and returning migrants strain a fragile system. Trade & Investment Links: Uzbekistan and Qatar discussed expanding cooperation to support Afghanistan’s development, focusing on trade, logistics, and humanitarian efforts. Regional Business Diplomacy: Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan launched a Joint Business Council to expand trade and investment, while Afghanistan’s commerce ministry also pushed export growth and Indian investment talks. Women & Agriculture: In Nuristan’s Parun Valley, women farmers are keeping village food supplies alive despite Taliban restrictions on most employment, highlighting how agriculture remains a key survival sector. Cross-border Security Risk: Rawadari condemned Pakistan’s strikes in eastern Afghan provinces as potentially violating international humanitarian law, raising fresh concerns for stability that businesses depend on.

Afghanistan Economy: The World Bank says Afghanistan’s economy is recovering, but growth is too weak to lift living standards as per-capita income falls 5.6% and demographic pressure keeps straining the fragile system, with trade disruptions from border closures and regional instability still weighing on exports, imports and investment. Urban Development & Health Services: Herat has started building a $600,000 underground market worth 38 million afghanis, aimed at easing traffic and better organizing lab and pharmacy services near the provincial hospital, with construction expected to finish in six months. Drug Control: Afghan counter-narcotics police destroyed a drug-processing lab in Helmand’s Baghran district and seized equipment used in illegal drug production, while earlier operations also reported poppy-farm destruction and seizures in Farah and Uruzgan. Regional Security & Civilian Impact: UN and Afghan officials condemned Pakistan’s airstrikes and border operations in eastern Afghanistan, with reports citing dozens of civilian deaths and injuries and renewed calls for diplomacy to prevent the conflict from spreading. Humanitarian & Rights Watch: UN chief António Guterres’ office said it is deeply concerned about Afghanistan-Pakistan violence and urged immediate cessation of hostilities and protection of civilians.

Cross-Border Violence: UNAMA says Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan’s border provinces killed at least 28 civilians and injured 49, while Taliban officials put the toll higher, as fighting continues despite repeated ceasefire efforts. Diplomacy & Security: Pakistan summoned Afghanistan’s chargé d’affaires over the Karachi Rangers attack, where an Afghan national was reportedly arrested; Islamabad also says Afghan soil is being used to orchestrate attacks. Business & Markets: Pakistan’s PSX slid after renewed US-Iran tensions raised worries about oil and the Strait of Hormuz, with the KSE-100 closing down 0.64%. Trade & Investment: Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan signed MoUs to expand trade and set up a joint business council, while Kabul is set to host the fifth National Industry Week Exhibition (July 1–7) with 360+ booths to boost domestic production and investment. Energy & Costs: Kabul fuel prices jumped sharply as petrol rose nearly 14% in days, adding pressure to household and business budgets. Regulation & Migration: Pakistan ordered the arrest of Afghan nationals without valid visas starting July 10, tightening enforcement under its illegal foreigners repatriation plan. Women, Work & Rights: Reports highlight Taliban restrictions hitting Afghanistan’s café culture and women’s economic participation, underscoring how policy shifts can quickly reshape local livelihoods.

Kabul Fuel Watch: Fuel prices jumped in Kabul as petrol rose nearly 14% in days, tightening household budgets and raising pressure on transport and small business costs. Herat Market Investment: Herat has started construction of a $38 million afghani underground market, signaling a push to expand urban commerce and retail space. Trade & Connectivity: Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed on $350 million in trade and investment deals, while a joint business council is set to boost cross-border business links. Pakistan Deportation Crackdown: Pakistan ordered the arrest of undocumented Afghan migrants starting July 10, with daily reporting requirements—an escalation that could disrupt labor supply and increase humanitarian risk. Cross-Border Security Shock: Pakistan carried out airstrikes and ground operations in eastern Afghanistan targeting militants after attacks in Karachi, while Kabul and rights groups warn of civilian harm and trade disruption. Education & Skills Link: Uzbekistan expanded training for Afghan citizens and Afghan-related education cooperation was highlighted alongside Uzbekistan’s rising university sustainability rankings.